Sigma Explained
Sigma controls how unusual a price move must be before Aurono considers it worth acting on.
You do not need statistical knowledge to use sigma correctly.
Think of sigma as a strictness dial.
- Low sigma = react quickly
- High sigma = wait for stronger evidence
BUY and SELL sigmas are independent and serve different purposes.
What Is Sigma (Without Math)
Section titled “What Is Sigma (Without Math)”Aurono looks at how much price usually moves within one candle.
Most candles move a little. Some candles move a lot.
Sigma tells Aurono:
“Only trigger when the move is bigger than normal by this amount.”
So sigma answers one question:
How extreme is extreme enough?
A Simple Analogy
Section titled “A Simple Analogy”Imagine daily weather:
- A normal day is mild
- A storm is unusual
Sigma is the rule that says:
- 1 - “This feels unusual”
- 2 - “This is clearly abnormal”
- 3 - “This almost never happens”
Aurono reacts only when price behaves like a storm, not like normal weather.
BUY Sigma (Downward Moves)
Section titled “BUY Sigma (Downward Moves)”BUY sigma applies only to price drops.
- Lower BUY sigma - buys on small dips
- Higher BUY sigma - buys only on deep drops
What Low BUY Sigma Does
Section titled “What Low BUY Sigma Does”- Many BUY signals
- Signals cluster during downtrends
- EUR gets consumed quickly
What High BUY Sigma Does
Section titled “What High BUY Sigma Does”- Fewer BUY signals
- Only deep pullbacks trigger
- Capital lasts longer
Rule of thumb: If you see many ignored BUY triggers, BUY sigma is too low.
Check the reason before acting on that, though. With RSI confirmation configured, ignored buys may be RSI declining to confirm rather than sigma firing too often, and lowering sigma would be the wrong fix.
SELL Sigma (Upward Moves)
Section titled “SELL Sigma (Upward Moves)”SELL sigma applies only to price rises.
- Lower SELL sigma - SELLs happen early
- Higher SELL sigma - SELLs wait for stronger moves
What Low SELL Sigma Does
Section titled “What Low SELL Sigma Does”- Early SELL signals
- Many SELLs happen before enough coins are accumulated
- ACB protection often blocks execution
What High SELL Sigma Does
Section titled “What High SELL Sigma Does”- Fewer SELL signals
- More patience
- Higher chance of selling above ACB
Rule of thumb: If many SELL triggers are ignored due to no inventory, SELL sigma is too low.
BUY and SELL Sigmas Are Independent
Section titled “BUY and SELL Sigmas Are Independent”Aurono does not use one sigma for both sides.
You can have:
- Conservative BUYs (high BUY sigma)
- Aggressive SELLs (low SELL sigma)
Or the opposite.
This separation is intentional and powerful.
What Sigma Is Not
Section titled “What Sigma Is Not”Sigma is not:
- A prediction
- A timing guarantee
- A profit setting
Sigma only controls how picky the strategy is.
General Guidance
Section titled “General Guidance”- Sigma up - fewer triggers, lower stress
- Sigma down - more triggers, higher pressure
There is no “correct” sigma.
Only safe combinations.
How the Strategy Lab Helps
Section titled “How the Strategy Lab Helps”The Simulate tab shows you:
- How many BUY and SELL signals occur
- Whether capital survives worst-case accumulation
- Whether SELLs fail due to inventory or ACB protection
This allows you to raise or lower sigma with confidence, not guesswork.
Final Intuition
Section titled “Final Intuition”Sigma is simply this question:
“How unusual does price movement need to be before I act?”
Aurono lets you choose the answer.